Below is the winning essay in the 1997 Wanek Essay Contest. Second prize, with a cash award of $125, went to Elizabeth Gelder for her essay on "Women in China." The first prize award is $350. Both winners came from Woodrow Wilson School in Washington D.C., and were taught by Joanna Engle, who accepted the awards for them at the 1997 MAR/AAS Annual Conference in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Hong Kong:
The Transition from Britain to China

In less than 30 days, Hong Kong will revert to Chinese rule. At midnight on June 30, more than a century and a half of British colonial rule will end and Hong Kong will become a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of the People's Republic of China (PRC). This unusual and remarkable transfer of power is being watched around the world. The question being asked is whether the PRC will live up to the commitments it made in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, providing for substantial autonomy for Hong Kong or whether the PRC will enforce its will on Hong Kong. This paper will describe the process for negotiation of the reversion and explore the reasons why Hong Kong PRC will enforce its will on Hong Kong. This paper will describe the process for negotiation of the reversion and explore the reasons why Hong Kong residents are concerned about their freedom. These reasons will explain why it is unlikely that Hong Kong will retain many of the rights that it currently has.

Hong Kong is one of the world's most successful societies. Although it has a land area of only 420 square miles and a population of just 6.3 million, Hong Kong is the world's eighth largest trading economy and a leading international financial center. Its success is based, in part, on its liberal trade policies, low taxes, strong currency, and highly educated workforce. Moreover, basic civil liberties are protected; freedom of speech is guaranteed and there is a strong framework of laws. Continuation of prosperity and these freedoms will depend on the willingness of the PRC to abide by its agreements with the British and the residents of Hong Kong.

Great Britain took over the island of Hong Kong after defeating China in the Opium War of 1839-1842. In the 1860 Treaty of Peking, China was forced to turn over the Kowloon Peninsula, opposite Hong Kong, to Great Britain. In 1898 China was forced to "lease" a much larger area north of the Kowloon, which later became known as the "New Territories", for ninety-nine years to June 30, 1997. During World War II, when Great Britain was negotiating with the Republic of China (ROC) for the termination of British special rights in China, the Chinese government demanded the termination of the 1898 lease, but Britain refused. Therefore, the Sino-British Treaty of the Abrogation of British Extraterritorial and Other Special Rights of 1943 didn't mention the lease. In late 1949, the Communists defeated the ROC and renewed the demand for the return of Hong Kong, Kowloon, and the New Territories. The PRC, however, did not press its demands because it had an important stake in Hong Kong's prosperity, because it received most of its hard currency from trade with Hong Kong. Although the PRC was willing to tolerate British control of Hong Kong, it opposed Hong Kong becoming an independent state. After it entered the United Nations, the PRC sent a letter in 1972 to the General Assembly's Special Committee on Colonialism stating that, "The settlement of the questions of Hong Kong and Macao is entirely with China's sovereign right..."

By the late 1970's, the residents of Hong Kong were becoming increasingly concerned about the status of the leased territories. While Britain was required to return only the New Territories in 1997, without them Hong Kong was not viable. Without the leased area, Hong Kong would have virtually no agriculture or industry. It would lose its shipping industry and probably its airport. Discussions between Hong Kong officials and China began in 1979, when Hong Kong's governor, Sir Murray MacLehose raised the issue in Beijing. At the meeting, Deng Xiaoping, the PRC leader, stated that the PRC considered Hong Kong part of its territory and would take it back at an uncertain time in the future. As the British continued to press the PRC for an answer on Hong Kong, Chinese leaders, concerned how they would be viewed by later generations, decided that they must take back Hong Kong.

British Prime Minister Thatcher's September, 1982 visit to Beijing began the first phase of negotiation on Hong Kong. Deng told Thatcher that the question of China's sovereignty over Hong Kong was not negotiable. In response Thatcher argued for continued links between Britain and Hong Kong but left open the possibility of Beijing's sovereignty over Hong Kong. At the end of the visit, a joint communiqué was issued stating that both countries "agreed to enter talks through sovereignty over Hong Kong. At the end of the visit, a joint communiqué was issued stating that both countries "agreed to enter talks through diplomatic channels following the visit, with the common aim of maintaining the stability and prosperity of Hong Kong". However, it immediately became apparent that the Chinese had no intention of making these negotiations easy. Thatcher was infuriated to learn that the official Chinese news agency, Xinhua, had added to the communiqué a unilateral statement that Chinese recovery of Hong Kong was "unequivocal and known to all." Thatcher responded that countries that do not honor their treaties cannot be trusted.

Over the next two years of hard negotiations, the Hong Kong economy faltered. The stock market crashed and the Hong Kong dollar lost at least 50% of its value. Many businessmen and intellectuals began making plans to emigrate. During this period of instability, neither government would comment on the negotiations.

Finally, on December 19, 1984, the UK and the PRC signed the Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong. The Joint Declaration established the concept of "one country, two systems and guaranteed that the economic system and human rights of the Hong Kong people will remain unchanged for at the concept of "one country, two systems and guaranteed that the economic system and human rights of the Hong Kong people will remain unchanged for at least fifty years. It spells out the PRC's policy toward Hong Kong, the post-1997 regime, and Hong Kong's international relations. The Joint Declaration was registered with the United Nations Secretariat. The highlights of the Joint Declaration are:

The Joint Declaration was generally viewed with relief by Hong Kong residents. However, one feature that many residents were unhappy with was the stationing of PRC troops in Hong Kong. They were also concerned about the absence of a prohibition on forcing Hong Kong's young men to serve in the Chinese army. After its announcement, the real estate and financial markets in Hong Kong gradually recovered and the city began to thrive again, in part because it legitimized British rule until 1997. During the transition period, China followed two courses of action. First, it supported the Hong Kong economy through investments to ensure prosperity. But it also sent more communist political groups to Hong Kong, raising fears in Hong Kong of PRC interference in its internal affairs.

The Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) was adopted on April 4, 1990 by the Seventh National People's Congress of the PRC. It's a "mini-constitution" that provides the basic framework for implementing the "one country, two systems" principle. On its face, the 159 articles of the Basic Law appear to ensure the autonomy for Hong Kong that was agreed to in the Joint Declaration. In its preamble, it states, "Under the principle of 'one country, two systems', the socialist system and policies will not be practiced in Hong Kong";. It also reiterates the Joint Declaration promise to allow Hong Kong to exercise a high degree of autonomy and to have a separate executive, legislative, and judicial system.

However, several key provisions of the Basic Law show that the PRC wants to have a firmer hold on Hong Kong's political system than is permitted in the Joint Declaration. First, Article 20 provides that power not delegated to the Hong Kong SAR by the Basic Law are reserved for the PRC Central People's Government. In Articles 158 and 159, interpretation and amendment of the Basic Law rests with the PRC's National People's Congress (NPC) and its Standing Committee. Second, laws enacted by the legislature of the Hong Kong SAR must be submitted to the NPC's Standing Committee, and if it does not agree with the law, the Standing Committee has the authority to invalidate it. Third, Article 18 states that the only PRC law that applies in Hong Kong are the laws relating to defense and foreign affairs. However, the Standing Committee has the right to declare a state of war or any other state of emergency which gives the Central People's Government authority to apply any PRC law to Hong Kong. Fourth, the SAR is required to enact laws prohibiting treason and subversion against the PRC and to prohibit political organizations from establishing ties with foreign political organizations. Since the PRC considers democratic ideas subversive, Hong Kong residents will no longer be permitted to work for democracy in China.

The Basic Law also contains flaws in the political system created in the SAR. The Hong Kong people may not directly elect the Chief Executive of the SAR. Although an Election Committee nominates the candidate and it should be a "broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures", the Election Committee is selected by the PRC. Thus it can ensure that only candidates it approves of are considered. Further, the Legislative Council is only partially elected by the people. The Basic Law provides that the "ultimate aim is the election of all members of the Legislative Council by universal suffrage." However, on April 4, 1990, the NPC decided that only twenty of the sixty members of the Council will be directly elected. Six years later, the number will increase to thirty. Under this arrangement, the PRC can make sure that at least half of the Council will under its control.

China's recent actions indicate that it is unwilling to provide Hong Kong with political autonomy. In 1994, the Hong Kong legislature passed a law proposed by British Governor Patton that reformed the electoral process. The PRC rejected the reforms as a violation of the Joint Declaration and announced it would not recognize the results of the 1995 Legislative Council elections. PRC rejected the reforms as a violation of the Joint Declaration and announced it would not recognize the results of the 1995 Legislative Council elections. In December 1996, the PRC's appointed Election Committee named the provisional Legislative Council, as provided for in the Basic Law. However, the selection process excluded certain political parties and critics of China, which many Hong Kong residents consider a violation of the Joint Declaration. Because of this, some members of the current Council did not seek seats on the provisional legislature. British and Hong Kong Government authorities have criticized the PRC decision to disband the current Legislative Council in favor of the provisional legislature that includes ten members who were defeated in the 1995 election, arguing that it is inconsistent with the Joint Declaration requirement of an elected legislature in Hong Kong. They have asked Beijing to allow the International Court of Justice in The Hague to decide the matter. While refusing, China has promised that a broad group of candidates and parties, including the Democratic Party, will be permitted to participate in the 1998 election.

Recent actions of the PRC have also raised concerns about its commitment to preserving civil liberties in Hong Kong. In particular, the Hong Kong press is fearful of being censored. In October, 1996, Chinese Foreign Minister Qian preserving civil liberties in Hong Kong. In particular, the Hong Kong press is fearful of being censored. In October, 1996, Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen stated that after July, 1997, personal criticism of Chinese leaders in the press and demonstrations to commemorate the Tiananmen Square massacre of June 4, 1989, would be prohibited. In March, 1997, three Hong Kong journalists who were reporting in China were held and then deported on the accusation of illegally entering a military zone in Fujian Province to collect information on the Chinese military exercises near Taiwan. In another recent case, the New China News Agency, Xinhua, tried unsuccessfully to stop an article published in the journalism magazine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Someone from Xinhua then called the student journalist and threatened that he would not have a career in journalism if he didn't change his attitude.

There is also some evidence that the PRC will not be as liberal as Hong Kong in permitting freedom of peaceful assembly. In November, 1996, there was a march by 3,000 people protesting the jailing of Chinese dissident Wang Dan. The police ordered the protesters to remove banners from outside Xinhua. While the police claimed that the banners were dangerous to drivers, the protesters claimed that the PRC had pressured Hong Kong to stop the demonstration.

On the economic front, China is making fewer changes. The Basic Law provisions on Hong Kong’s economy after July, 1997, have been described by one historian as "free-market totalitarianism." This means that Hong Kong will continue to have a capitalist economy but one that is run by a non-democratic political system. However, the PRC has strong incentives not to interfere heavily or to undermine the Hong Kong economy. China has tried to reassure the business community that it would be safe so long as it follows the Basic Law.

Uncertainty lays in store for Hong Kong. China has given mixed signals about its plans to honor its commitment to the principles of the Joint Declaration. By enacting the Basic Law and by refusing to accept the Hong Kong electoral reforms, China has already undermined progress towards democracy. China also has given indications that it will limit civil rights, such as freedom of press and assembly. Where, however, China stands to lose financially if it imposes its own economic system, it will honor the Joint Declaration requirement of a free market system. Finally, the future of Hong Kong will depend in large part on whether China itself becomes a more open and free society.